Land liquidity is inevitable – it’s the timing that’s uncertain
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
Jon Love and Rob Kumer share observations on today's land market
The precise timing of land value recovery is always difficult to predict. Land liquidity will rebound in value when developers are confident that they can launch and sell a project.
Rob Kumer, Chief Executive Officer
Land liquidity follows development feasibility, not investor sentiment.
Land does not reprice in isolation; it must reflect the economic feasibility of a project.
In today’s environment, economic feasibility is constrained by regulatory timelines and elevated costs - particularly from fees, taxes and limited absorption.
As a result, developers have retreated from the market, limited new land acquisition, and are preserving their existing inventory.
The housing market must absorb supply before land liquidity resurfaces.
Excess supply delivered between 2025 and 2027 will need to work its way through the system prior to a rebound in land liquidity.
Until the inventory is absorbed, land liquidity will remain muted, along with limited new project launches.
Today's inactivity is seeding tomorrow's recovery.
With no new projects launching, the forward supply pipeline is materially constrained.
This results in very limited new supply for 2028/2029 – creating the conditions for a tightening market, a price rebound and land liquidity.
The trigger condition is clear: developers won’t buy land until they’re confident that they can sell.
I've been around this for a long time and cycles are always the same; a down cycle is followed by stabilization, growth and recovery.
Jon Love, Executive Chair & Founder
Timing is uncertain. Direction and recovery are not.
While it’s difficult to pinpoint whether recovery begins in 2026, 2027, or 2028 – the broader pattern is consistent across cycles: periods of contraction move through stabilization and then to recovery.
Historically, once conditions turn, recovery in land markets is rapid and decisive.
